Brazil Takes Off vs. Brazil's Economy: A Bull Diminished

In 2009, in articolul denumit "Brazilia, tara viitorului?!", faceam referinta la un articol din The Economist, "Brazil takes off", un raport special de 14 pagini privind Brazilia care reliefa potentialul acestei tari de a deveni una dintre primele cinci cele mai mari economii ale planetei. Dupa 2 ani si jumatate, exuberanta analistilor privind economia Braziliei pare a se fi racit. Un nou articol din The Economist descrie economia Braziliei ca fiind "un taur slabit" ("A Bull Diminished"):

http://www.economist.com/node/21555588

Un comentariu interesant al articolului din The Economist:

"Now, if we could at least say "hey but we greatly diversified our economy and became a major exporter of this this and that manufactured product" or "hey but we now through our great education we produced and created products that are less elastic in price" or "hey at least because we invested so much in infrastructure and de-bureaucratization the costs of business are so low that we can still keep going" I'd agree with you.

But none of these was done. And we know that we had to do that for a long time now.We didn't do our homework, and when that happens, you know the consequences. 

Question: what percentage of the entire government's budget goes to pay interest? 

More than 40%. 

Think about that figure and tell me if the govt will EVER do much without either a)increasing taxation (not likely) or b)decreasing costs aggressively (not likely either).

Brazil is hardly viable as a country. 

Brazil cannot grow faster than internal consumption (credit is already overstretched) without attracting production from elsewhere (impossible given our competitors and our crappy infrastructure). Even the automotive sector is now getting beaten up by Mexico.

So, does Brazil have nice beaches, agua de coco, mulata, music, 5 world cups, Garota de Ipanema, Rio, Iguacu, picanha, pre-sal and what not?

Yes.

Is this enough? 

Not really...not if one aspires to have a civilized country, which Brazil most certainly isn't (50% of houses don't have sewer, 20+ million illiterate, 85th position in HDI ranking, more people dying violent deaths per year than Vietnam War, roads that are ridiculously expensive to make, operate and kill your own population, ...)."

Un contra-comentariu:

"Yes, it is Brazil´s fault winning five World Cups.
Brazil has been very sucessful on historical grounds, and that is why it has attracted 6 million immigrants, and has expanded far beyond the Tordesillas Treaty limits at the expense of other territories, until the XX Century. Rio Grande do Sul, Acre, Roraima...
While the lands of the former Spanish Empire in the Americas are now divided in 18 different countries, and have lost 2 million sq. Kms. since Independence, Brazil has enlarged half a million sq. Kms. with an increasing population.
Of course, with a better management, Brazil would be now the 4th industrial power in the World, instead of the 6th. And income per head would be at least as high as in Portugal ($ 24,000) instead of $11,000....
But the result is not a failure but an incomplete success..."

Si un punct de vedere mai moderat:

"Nobody likes to be criticized, especially in comparing countries... America has its problems, Europe has its problems, China has its problems and Brazil has its problems! Just as the FIFA president said yesterday, Brazil is not a poor country, we are the 6th largest economy in the world. But where is all this money going? Well, definitely not to improve our country."

Dezbaterea este deschisa...
http://descoperabrazilia.blogspot.com/2009/11/brazilia-tara-viitorului.html